In a world increasingly shaped by geopolitical friction, technological acceleration, and shifting economic models, many of the most important developments are happening below the surface. In this Intelligence Report Q&A, Karl G. Schlegel III, Managing Partner at Renovatio Global, shares his perspective on the trends leaders are underestimating, from ecosystem-led strategic partnerships and the emerging space economy to real-world asset tokenization and the infrastructure realities behind AI. What follows is his direct take on the questions shaping global power over the next several years.
Karl, thank you for joining us. What’s one global trend, whether it is business, finance, or geopolitics, that people are underestimating right now and why?
Strategic Partnerships and Ecosystem led collaboration have been standard in diplomacy but far less understood when it comes to other areas of life. At the core lies exchange of value. People forget that perception of value, like beauty, is in the eye of the beholder. Something has value based on the degree of utility and desire to the person willing to trade for it and the context of that exchange of value. Moving from a 1 to 1 to a 1+1=11 exponential outcome mindset aligns energy, compresses time and risk, and gives an unparalleled advantage in driving an outcome. Recognizing this is not enough. One needs to make bold, unreasonable requests and take fearless action. If you look around, you will see this happening in many different areas and ways.
From your vantage point, what global development currently poses the greatest long-term strategic risk or opportunity, and why is it still underappreciated by the broader public or decision-makers?
The exploration of space and the adjacent space economy poses the greatest opportunity on many levels. The first level is economic gain. The second level consists of quality of life breakthroughs and ways that products, services, and experiences are reimagined. The third level consists of the possibility for greater individual contribution and humanity-wide collaboration. The fourth level is scientific and the fifth level is philosophical. The exploration of space can invite new perspectives from which to examine human existence, beliefs, the very notion of truth, and the concept of human flourishing.
Which geopolitical or economic trend do you believe will most significantly reshape global power dynamics over the next 3–5 years, and what indicators should observers be watching now?
Real World Asset tokenization will start turning cash poor but resource rich countries into powerhouses. It is not the asset itself but the ability to use data to value and create capital instruments against the assets that will open up liquidity and exchange of value. The real winner in all of this is the way that data is coming into its own as a separately recognized asset class and the driver that determines value: real-world or otherwise.
How do you assess the current balance between cooperation and competition among major powers, and where do you see the greatest potential for miscalculation or unintended escalation?
I believe that what is happening on the surface is a constructed reality masking what may be taking place on a deeper level. There is a lot of saber rattling taking place along with increasingly larger forces going after smaller portions of land. The notion of control of land and sea, of economic interests, and more is changing. I believe that there is also a psychological shift occurring where concepts like manifest destiny are surfacing but also being questioned. The world is much more connected and the surface is smaller. This sheer proximity is leading to elbow rubbing and hand checking similar to a basketball game. A “defensive” move can quickly escalate into a foul with unintended consequences and serious escalation.
What role do emerging technologies (e.g., AI, cyber capabilities, energy systems, data infrastructure) play in altering finance, intelligence, security, or governance frameworks today?
Emerging technologies have received a lot of attention, however these are outcomes of a deeper infrastructure. The digitized economy relies on data infrastructure; data infrastructure requires power; power requires water. Many people may not be aware of the way that water is a critical resource required not only for drinking and washing clothes but for key infrastructure. Therefore, you have a high-tech AI-driven adoption and escalation in society while at the same time one can observe a deeper realization of the need for regenerative agriculture and the trades. The evolution taking place across governance, finance, and intelligence frameworks is not limited to high tech. Micro-economies are developing whether digital or not and centralized and decentralized trade-driven models are gaining influence. Even the notion of ownership is evolving.
For leaders in government, finance, business, or civil society, what strategic mindset or capability is most critical to navigate the current global environment effectively?
A shift from a “scarcity mindset” that governs from a fear of lack to an “abundance mindset” that seeks to receive more through fair or gratuitous exchange of value could elevate perspective and provide space for emotional processing. It is important not only for leaders to espouse frameworks but to keep the rules simple enough that they can also abide by them. Leadership by example can go a long way across the globe today. Also, leaders need to place the court of public opinion aside and simplify decisions to what is objectively right and wrong. Justifying “for the greater good” is too simple a loophole akin to the Geneva Convention which many nations love to quote but violate. How are leaders able to think of the individual and the group at the same time? Breakthroughs must first take place in mindset before they can be effective at the level of society.
