One month after the U.S. military operation that resulted in the capture of Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela has entered a state of cautious recalibration. What began on January 3, 2026, as Operation Absolute Resolve, a pre-dawn raid that transported Maduro to New York City to face narco-terrorism charges, has evolved into a complex struggle for governance, economic control, and international legitimacy.
A Fragile Interim Governance
In Caracas, the immediate vacuum of power was filled not by the opposition, but by an interim structure led by Delcy Rodríguez, who was sworn in as acting president on January 5. While the security apparatus and ruling party remain largely intact, the administration has adopted a pragmatic tone. Facing immense pressure, the Rodríguez government has signaled a willingness to negotiate, most notably through a sweeping amnesty law announced in late January. As of February 1, over 300 political prisoners have been released from detention centers like the Helicoide.
This shift suggests that while the “old guard” remains in the halls of power, they are operating under what local observers call “strategic coercion.” The government has moved from threats of asymmetrical warfare to acknowledging a need for functional diplomatic and economic ties with Washington to ensure domestic survival.
Oil as the Central Negotiating Lever
The cornerstone of this new era is the management of Venezuela’s energy reserves. Rather than a total lifting of sanctions, the U.S. Treasury has implemented a “controlled access” model. On January 29, 2026, General License No. 46 was issued, allowing specific U.S. and international entities to resume the lifting, sale, and refining of Venezuelan crude under strict conditions.
Key features of this new energy framework include:
- Revenue Control: Proceeds from oil sales are being channeled into U.S.-managed accounts, intended for both humanitarian aid and the settlement of longstanding debts.
- Legal Jurisdiction: All new energy contracts must be governed by U.S. law, effectively moving the legal center of Venezuela’s oil industry from Caracas to American courts.
- Strategic Exclusion: The new licenses explicitly prohibit transactions involving entities from Russia, China, Iran, or Cuba, aiming to decouple Venezuela from its traditional Eastern allies.
Domestically, the Venezuelan National Assembly has matched these moves by approving a pro-business reform to the Organic Law on Hydrocarbons. This reform significantly reduces the state’s mandatory stake in oil projects and allows for private operational control, an attempt to attract the estimated $100 billion in investment requested by the Trump administration to modernize the country’s dilapidated infrastructure.
Regional Precedent and Global Shifts
The international community remains deeply divided over the legality of the extraction. While the U.S. justifies the action as a law-enforcement operation against a criminal enterprise, others see a challenge to the norms of national sovereignty.
In South America, neighbors like Brazil and Colombia are walking a fine line. They are alert to the legal implications of unilateral intervention while simultaneously preparing for the economic opportunities that a resurgent Venezuelan oil market provides. Meanwhile, global powers like Russia and China have condemned the move at the UN Security Council, labeling it a “theft” of resources and a violation of the UN Charter.
What to Watch: The Next 90 Days
As February progresses, the focus shifts from military action to institutional stability. Markets are watching for detailed trading data to see if the “controlled flow” of oil can reach the targeted 800,000–1,000,000 barrels per day. Politically, the question remains whether the interim administration can maintain military loyalty while satisfying U.S. demands for further political liberalization and the eventual return of opposition leaders like María Corina Machado to the public sphere.
This episode marks a departure from traditional diplomacy, establishing a precedent where commodity access and political compliance are explicitly linked in the landscape of 21st-century strategic competition.
