The United States, the United Kingdom and foreign ministers of 27 other Western states issued a joint statement on Monday, 12 October, condemning Iran’s use of violent attacks, plotting, arson, sabotage and cyber operations. They said they recognised the UK’s attribution of Iran’s involvement in the incident at RAF Fairford on 27 September. The statement came the same day UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham addressed Parliament on the findings.
The step turns a national security investigation into a coordinated diplomatic position. It also arrives while Iran remains a party to an active war, and while European governments are weighing how far to align with Washington on the conflict.
What the UK said
Burnham told lawmakers that, in the government’s assessment, the plot was highly likely organised in Iran and almost certainly directed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). He said the UK would not tolerate such threats on its territory and would target Iran’s criminal networks and their funding channels. He also promised further sanctions to limit the capacity of Iran and the IRGC to do harm.
London has already acted on the diplomatic track. Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband said Iran’s ambassador had been summoned, and the UK sanctioned two Iranian nationals over alleged roles in harmful activity on behalf of the Iranian government.
Several facts remain unresolved. Seven men were arrested in the investigation and released on bail without charge, and no one has been charged so far. Axios reported that it was unclear whether those arrested were connected to the alleged planned drone attack or to a different attack. Burnham did not say whether two airbase incidents were linked.
The multilateral statement
The signatories pledged to act beyond the Fairford case. The text says anyone conducting hostile activity on behalf of Iran, or any other state, should expect action to identify, investigate, disrupt and prosecute those acts. It also cites a campaign of attacks across Europe targeting Jewish communities, Iranian journalists and US interests. That campaign was claimed by a pro-Iran group called Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamiya, according to the statement.
The wording is notable for what it asserts directly and what it does not. The signatories recognise the UK’s attribution rather than presenting independent findings, a formulation that allows governments to show solidarity without publishing their own intelligence.
The other signatories are Australia, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain and Sweden. That list does not include some other NATO and G7 members, such as Italy and Poland. Coverage consulted did not explain why. Reporting also varies on the count: Middle East Online referred to 28 countries, while most outlets, including Pressbee, reported 29.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte welcomed the statement.
Background: bases and the war
RAF Fairford has been central to the Iran conflict. Before the US-Israeli attacks, President Donald Trump had asked to use two British bases, Diego Garcia and RAF Fairford, as staging grounds for strikes. Then Prime Minister Keir Starmer first rejected the request, citing the need to be satisfied on legality, but changed course after Iran struck British allies in the Middle East. The base has since been used by American bombers to strike Iran.
Axios described the alleged plot as an unprecedented move against a US base in Europe, with potential to dramatically escalate the Middle East war. According to Air & Space Forces Magazine, cited by SOFX, all B-1 bombers left RAF Fairford in a hasty departure on 4 October.
Tehran’s position
Iran has denied involvement, although it has previously said it considers any base used to attack its territory a legitimate target. Iranian state media reported on 11 October that Iran’s ambassador again rejected London’s claims about the Fairford base in a meeting with a British official. No Iranian reaction to the joint statement had been identified in the sources reviewed at the time of writing.
Regional and EU context
The statement coincided with a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Luxembourg. Ministers discussed the Middle East, including the war in Iran and its effects across the region. They addressed escalating Gulf and Red Sea tensions, condemned a Houthi attack on Riyadh airport, and stressed de-escalation and diplomatic engagement towards a negotiated outcome.
That framing points to a split in emphasis that the Fairford statement does not resolve. European signatories are endorsing a hard line on Iranian covert activity on their territory. At the same time, EU ministers are publicly prioritising de-escalation and a negotiated outcome in the Gulf. Both tracks can coexist, but they pull governments in different directions if Iran retaliates against Western bases or if further plots surface.
Strategic implications
The attribution raises the cost for governments that host US forces. A state-directed plot against a base used in active operations, if substantiated in court, would strengthen arguments for broader sanctions on the IRGC and for tighter counter-intelligence cooperation. It could also harden domestic debate over hosting arrangements for US military assets.
For London, the statement offers political cover. The UK has faced repeated criticism from Trump since the conflict began, over claims that it was not doing enough. Securing US backing for its attribution, alongside most EU capitals, positions the Burnham government as a leading voice on Iranian hybrid threats.
What to watch
- Charging decisions: whether prosecutors charge any of the seven men released on bail, and what evidence is made public.
- UK sanctions: the further designations Burnham promised against the IRGC and its funding networks, and whether EU members mirror them.
- EU listings: any move by the Council to extend restrictive measures on Iranian hybrid activity, given the ministers’ discussion on 12 October.
- Iran’s formal response: a statement from Tehran addressing the 29-state text, and any threats towards bases used in the war.
- Signatory list: whether absent allies, including Italy and Poland, add their names.
- Force posture: whether US bombers return to Fairford, and how London and Washington describe base security arrangements.
- European Council: the October summit, where leaders are due to hold a strategic discussion on enlargement and may also address Iran and the Gulf.
Sources
- US, UK and 27 more countries warn Iran against further attacks on West, after British base plot
- Iran "almost certainly" behind US bomber base plot, UK Prime Minister Burnham
- Iran involved in a terror plot at UK base; 29 countries condemn it
- US, UK and allies warn Iran over alleged threats and proxy activity
- countries condemn Iran over alleged role in UK air base incident
- Canada signs a joint statement denouncing Iran after UK air base plot
- Canada signs joint statement denouncing Iran's apparent plot to attack U.K. air base
- UK Blames Iran's IRGC for Bomber Base Plot as Tehran Rejects Accusations
- Terror Plot at UK Airbase 'Almost Certainly' Directed by Iran, British PM Says
- Main results of the EU Foreign Affairs Council on 12 October 2026
Top image: Colin Cooke Photo / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 2.0)
This article was produced by the Intelligence Report Desk. Sources are linked below.
