China’s exports rose 36.3% in September from a year earlier, according to customs data released on Wednesday. The figure puts the country on course to exceed last year’s record trade surplus, as pressure ramped up from its trading partners, including the European Union, to rebalance trade, the Associated Press reported from Hong Kong. The data landed in the same week that finance officials are meeting in Bangkok for the IMF and World Bank annual meetings, where trade imbalances have moved onto the agenda.
On the same day, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged the IMF to take a firmer line on policies that distort competition. His remarks did not name China, but they were widely read as aimed at Beijing.
The data
September export growth beat economists’ expectations and accelerated from 25% growth in August. It was the fastest pace since February, according to FactSet data. Reuters had polled economists for a 25.5% rise, according to a summary of the release, which also reported that semiconductor shipments rose 108.1% and automobile exports grew by more than 50%.
Imports also accelerated. They climbed 31% year on year, against 28.2% in August, leaving a monthly trade surplus of $133.5 billion, up from $119.1 billion in August. For the first nine months, the surplus reached $938.1 billion, with expectations growing that it could surpass last year’s full-year record of $1.2 trillion.
The AP noted that high-tech goods including semiconductors and automobiles helped fuel the rising shipments. Chinese customs officials, cited in a market summary, said foreign trade had dealt effectively with external shocks and shown resilience over the first three quarters.
Washington’s message in Bangkok
Bessent did not travel to the meetings. The Treasury confirmed that Deputy Treasury Secretary Francis Brooke and Under Secretary for International Affairs Erin Browne would lead the US delegation. His absence was noted, since other countries’ officials generally use the meetings to secure bilateral sessions with their US counterpart, according to Reuters.
He instead submitted a prepared statement to the Development Committee and the International Monetary and Financial Committee. According to AFP, he said policymakers worldwide were having difficult discussions about sustaining market-based systems amid distortionary policies from some economies that skew competition and hurt employment. He said the Fund was founded to prevent such policies and their spillovers, and that it “must exercise its voice on this critical issue or risk being sidelined.”
AFP noted that the statement did not mention China, but the country has faced criticism that its policies create an overreliance on exports, and critics say its excess industrial capacity drives down prices unfairly. Beijing has generally rejected such characterisations. The IMF itself lowered its 2026 growth forecast for China to 4.5% this week, down 0.1 percentage point, warning that robust exports could not fully offset domestic weakness.
Competing pressures
The export strength is supporting growth at a time of soft domestic demand. Strong exports have helped drive China’s overall growth this year while consumption and investment remain sluggish, weighed down by a yearslong real estate downturn. The AP reported that analysts believe boosting domestic demand has yet to become a priority this year, even after recent measures such as subsidies for homebuyers’ mortgage interest payments.
Trading partners are reacting unevenly. BNP Paribas Asset Management strategist Ecaterina Bigos said that while US-China tensions had eased somewhat, “the EU’s push to rebalance directly targets high-value exports.” Fortune, summarising the AP report, said partners such as the EU face weak growth prospects and fear their manufacturing industries will be overrun by Chinese exports.
The US-China relationship is on a different track. Washington struck a deal with Beijing last month to prolong their trade truce, and Reuters reported that Chinese state buyers purchased 8 to 10 Panamax cargoes of US soybeans this week, the first such deals since the September summit between the two presidents. Europe has less of that cushion. In London, a newspaper report cited in a market briefing said the UK Business Secretary ruled out tariffs on Chinese vehicles and said he would not change trade rules under EU pressure, a sign that Western responses are not aligned.
Strategic implications
The data sharpen a structural argument that now runs through the Bangkok meetings. Surplus economies, chiefly China, face calls to lift domestic demand. Deficit economies face calls to address fiscal and competitiveness gaps. The US Treasury said before the meetings that it would work with partners on policies and structural imbalances that have held back growth and contributed to persistent global imbalances.
The IMF’s role is the open question. Bessent’s warning that the Fund risks being sidelined adds to pressure on its surveillance mandate, but the Fund has limited tools to compel changes in a large economy’s policy mix. Any push in the IMFC communique is likely to draw resistance from Beijing and possibly from emerging economies wary of being seen to endorse unilateral trade measures.
The macro backdrop complicates matters. Bessent’s absence came as benchmark Treasury yields reached their highest levels in nearly 25 years and the energy shock from the Middle East war set back global growth. A strong yuan-area export machine and high US borrowing costs together raise the political stakes of any adjustment in trade flows.
What to watch
- October 15 to 17: the Development Committee session, the plenary on October 16, and the IMFC plenary on October 17, including whether any text addresses external imbalances or distortionary policies.
- October 16: a public event with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, according to Al Jazeera.
- EU trade measures: whether Brussels moves from rhetoric to new instruments targeting high-value Chinese exports, and how member states and the UK diverge.
- Chinese policy response: any new domestic demand support, and whether Beijing answers Washington’s remarks at the IMF.
- Monthly customs data: the October release, to test whether the surplus tracks toward the $1.2 trillion mark set last year.
- G20 follow-up: the US-hosted G20 leaders summit in Miami in December, where Bessent is expected to attend, according to Reuters.
Sources
- China's trade surplus hits $938 billion for Jan-Sep as pressure ramps up to rebalance trade (AP via ABC News)
- China's trade surplus nears record as pressure mounts from trading partners (AP via Washington Times)
- Trade war: China's exports surged 36.3% in September (BNN Bloomberg)
- China's trade surplus reaches $938 billion as exports surge 36.3% (Fortune)
- China's September Exports Jump 36.3%, Pushing Trade Surplus Toward $1 Trillion (YourNews)
- US Treasury chief urges stronger IMF role against 'distortionary policies' (AFP via France 24)
- US Treasury's Bessent to skip IMF-World Bank meetings in Bangkok (Reuters via Yahoo Finance)
- US Treasury chief to skip IMF annual meetings in Bangkok (AFP via BSS)
- War and high debt to dominate IMF-World Bank meetings in Bangkok (Al Jazeera)
- Newsquawk Daily European Opening News, 14th October 2026
Top image: Jonashtand / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0)
This article was produced by the Intelligence Report Desk. Sources are linked below.
