Ethiopian government troops advanced on Tuesday to a town on the Eritrean border that Tigrayan rebels had previously held, according to people in touch with residents cited by Reuters, as diplomats worked to head off war between the two neighbours. The UN Security Council, under its Greek presidency, was due to hold a closed-door meeting the same day on the situation in the Horn of Africa.
The advance on Zalambessa follows a week of escalating charges between Addis Ababa and Asmara. Each government now accuses the other of aggression, and each has put its case to the Council in writing. The outcome could shape security along the Red Sea, where sea access is a long-running grievance.
What is known on the ground
Witnesses and a conflict monitor said Eritrean troops had crossed into Zalambessa last week in support of the rebels. Reuters said it was unclear whether Eritrean troops or rebels were still there on Tuesday. The town, near Ethiopia’s northernmost point, has about 15,000 residents, according to six sources.
The Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) gave a more detailed account on 12 October. It said the Ethiopian National Defense Force and the allied Tigray Peace Force had taken control of Fatsi and Zalambessa. ACLED also reported that Eritrean forces positioned along the Zalambessa-Fatsi corridor had withdrawn across the border into Eritrea on 12 October. Earlier, ACLED had reported that Eritrean troops crossing near Zalambessa came under Ethiopian drone attack while advancing towards Idaga Hamus.
A separate and unverified report points to a second front. A source close to the Ethiopian government, quoted by the Canada-based outlet UMD Media, said Ethiopian forces had crossed into Eritrea in the Afar region and seized Deba Sima, less than 60 kilometres from the port of Assab. The claim has not been confirmed by independent outlets, and neither government has publicly acknowledged such a move.
Dueling letters at the Security Council
In a letter dated 9 October, Ethiopian Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos invoked Article 51 of the UN Charter, which recognises the right of self-defence against armed attack. The letter stated that Eritrean troops had advanced up to 60 km inside Tigray in recent days. It demanded an immediate troop withdrawal and asked the UN to condemn the alleged incursion. Addis Ababa did not specify what measures it was taking in response.
Eritrea rejects the account. In a letter seen by Reuters, Eritrea asked the Council on 10 October to take deterrent measures against Ethiopia, saying the invasion accusations amounted to a “declaration of war”. Foreign Minister Osman Saleh said the incursion claims were part of a plan to justify a war of aggression, and he invoked Chapter VII of the Charter, which allows measures from sanctions to military action. He did not specify which measures Eritrea wanted.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres has also weighed in. According to UN News, he called for an immediate end to the renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia and said he was gravely concerned by reports involving Eritrean forces.
Background: Tigray, the Red Sea and an unresolved rivalry
The current crisis grew out of the Tigray conflict. Rebels launched attacks on federal forces in the northern region last month, according to AFP. The Ethiopian army has since pushed back the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and seized its capital, Mekelle. Ethiopia says Eritrea is backing the rebels.
The bilateral history adds to the risk. Eritrea gained independence from Ethiopia in 1993, and the two fought a deadly border war from 1998 to 2000. Relations improved after Abiy Ahmed became prime minister in 2018 but have soured again in recent years.
Sea access is the central strategic dispute. Landlocked Ethiopia has repeatedly said it has a right to direct sea access. Eritrea interprets that stance as a threat to invade and seize its port at Assab. Eritrean Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel said Eritrea had shown restraint. He argued that a 2023 Ethiopian statement on acquiring sovereign sea access amounted to a declaration of a war of aggression.
Strategic implications
Reuters reported that with Addis Ababa and Asmara again on opposing sides, conflicts raging elsewhere in the region and tensions high across the Red Sea, there are fears of broader contagion this time. A direct state-on-state conflict would add to pressures on Red Sea security, a corridor already affected by other regional confrontations.
Regional diplomacy is also active. Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan issued a joint statement after a meeting in New Alamein City, Egypt, calling for de-escalation of regional conflicts and for dialogue. The formal positions at the Council point to a difficult path to consensus. Ethiopia frames its actions as lawful self-defence, while Eritrea frames them as aggression that warrants Chapter VII measures. Neither side’s military claims has been independently verified in full.
The evidence also leaves the central question open. ACLED’s report of an Eritrean pullback on 12 October and the Reuters uncertainty over who holds Zalambessa suggest the front is fluid. That may reduce the immediate risk of a major cross-border offensive, or it may only mark a pause.
What to watch
- Security Council outcome: whether the closed consultations produce a press statement, a formal meeting or a draft resolution, and whether members split over the Article 51 and Chapter VII framings.
- Control of Zalambessa: independent confirmation of which forces hold the town and whether Eritrean units remain in Ethiopian territory.
- Afar and Assab axis: any verification of the reported clashes near Bure and Deba Sima, which would signal a direct Ethiopian push toward the Red Sea coast.
- Diplomatic channels: further statements from the African Union and the UN Secretary-General, and any mediation offers from Egypt or Gulf states.
- Drone activity: repeated Ethiopian drone strikes on Eritrean forces would indicate that the confrontation is widening beyond Tigray.
Sources
- Ethiopian troops enter Zalambessa, on border with Eritrea, stoking war fears (Reuters via Martin Plaut)
- Ethiopian troops enter town on border with Eritrea, stoking war fears (Times Live/Reuters)
- Ethiopian Forces Reach Eritrean Border at Zalambessa (Kulu Media, citing ACLED and Reuters)
- Ethiopia, Eritrea ramp up rhetoric: Are they inching towards war? (Al Jazeera)
- Eritrea urges UN to act against Ethiopia's 'declaration of war' (Al Arabiya/AFP)
- Eritrea Asks UN to Intervene in Standoff With Ethiopia (US News/Reuters)
- Eritrea urges UN to intervene in standoff with Ethiopia (Al Jazeera)
- Eritrea urges UN to condemn Ethiopia's 'declaration of war' (Ahram Online)
- Eritrea seeks UN action against Ethiopia over war threat (RT Africa)
- Horn of Africa: Eritrea Accuses Ethiopia of Declaring War Amid Border Clashes South of Assab (Rane Network)
Top image: Jdforrester / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY 4.0)
This article was produced by the Intelligence Report Desk. Sources are linked below.
