UN climate presidencies meet in New York as COP31 nears, with 2.8°C warning

Less than a month before the UN climate conference COP31 opens in Antalya, Türkiye, representatives of three successive summit presidencies met to ask how trust in climate action can be restored while the effects of warming are already being felt. The session took place at UN headquarters in New York and was reported by UN News on 16 October. The UN said current policies put the world on course for 2.8°C of warming, and that COP31 must deliver accessible finance and practical protection for vulnerable communities.

The meeting offered an early read on the priorities of the host presidency, the outgoing Brazilian presidency and the General Assembly leadership. It also showed how much of the Antalya agenda turns on money and implementation, not on new headline targets.

Background: a conference run by two governments

Türkiye will host COP31 in Antalya from 9 to 20 November 2026 and will hold the presidency, according to its Communications Directorate. The arrangement is unusual. Turkey hosts the negotiations while Australia leads the conduct of the conference, a compromise reached after both countries bid to host. Under that compromise, pre-COP meetings are to be held on a Pacific island.

Türkiye’s Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change Minister Murat Kurum is the conference’s president-designate. World leaders are expected to gather for a special summit in Antalya on 11 and 12 November. The conference follows the 2025 summit in Belém, and the Wikipedia entry for the process lists Addis Ababa as the 2027 host.

What the presidencies and the Assembly said

General Assembly President Khalilur Rahman warned that intensifying climate disasters, including recent devastation in Nepal, showed the human cost of delayed action. Australia, which leads the COP31 negotiations, pointed to rising seas and extreme weather threatening homes, livelihoods and infrastructure.

Türkiye’s ambassador to the UN, Ahmet Yıldız, framed the finance question in terms of access. He said the issue is not only the overall volume of finance but whether it is available, accessible, affordable and predictable. Australian Ambassador James Larsen said trust can be restored by listening to the most vulnerable communities and accelerating practical initiatives.

Developing-country concerns were also raised. Africa contributes about 3% of global greenhouse-gas emissions but faces some of the most severe climate effects. Ethiopia’s permanent representative, Tesfaye Yilma Sabo, said delayed action carries a compounding cost for developing countries.

The negotiating agenda

Brazil, which hosted COP30, named three priorities for Antalya: making the new just transition mechanism operational, improving how countries measure progress on adaptation, and expanding climate investment in developing countries struggling with debt. Those items point to a technical, implementation-heavy round of talks.

Analysts also expect a narrow formal agenda. The Climate Watch reported that formal negotiations are expected to contain few major new issues, with voluntary initiatives and electrification receiving greater attention from the hosts. Türkiye has said it wants an implementation-focused summit that delivers existing commitments through practical solutions, not mainly through new pledges. One initiative is the Climate Implementation Bridge, developed with the UN Development Programme, which aims to turn national commitments into investment-ready projects and link them with financing.

Fossil fuels remain the main fault line. Efforts to set a specific global target or roadmap for ending fossil fuel use have been stalled for years. Severe climate disasters this year and instability in global energy markets are also expected to shape discussions in and around the venue. On 16 October, at a biodiversity leaders’ summit in Yerevan, Euronews reported that Secretary-General António Guterres urged governments to stop propping up polluting fossil fuels, calling such support “subsidising suicide.” UN News noted that Guterres had 76 days remaining in office as of that speech. The COP31 outcome will therefore be one of the last major climate negotiations of his tenure.

Strategic implications

The shared-hosting model tests whether a split presidency can hold a coalition together on contested items. Divisions over fossil fuels, adaptation metrics and the cost of capital for indebted countries have persisted through earlier summits. The pre-conference messaging suggests the hosts hope to show progress through delivery mechanisms and voluntary coalitions, which carry less political risk than binding language.

For developing economies, the debt question is central. Guterres said in Yerevan that many developing countries have been unable to invest enough in nature and human development because of debt burdens, limited public budgets and an inequitable international financial system. That argument is likely to be carried into the Antalya finance discussions.

Climate and ocean diplomacy are recurring themes at the New York Innovation Forum for Sustainable Development, which Welch International co-hosts with Peace Boat US alongside Climate Week NYC and the UN General Assembly.

What to watch

• 9 November: COP31 opens in Antalya. Early procedural fights over the agenda will show how divided delegations are.
• 11 and 12 November: the leaders’ summit, including the level of attendance and any new finance announcements.
• 17 November: the thematic day on ocean, seas, nature and land use. The ocean agenda is one to follow for links to wider UN ocean governance.
• 20 November: the day scheduled for final negotiations. Watch whether the just transition mechanism and adaptation indicators are agreed, and whether any fossil fuel language appears in a decision text.
• Presidency letters: the Türkiye presidency has issued periodic letters to parties, the latest dated 5 October, and further guidance before opening could signal the intended shape of the outcome.

Sources

• As disasters mount, next UN climate summit faces a test of trust
• COP31 urged to turn climate promises into action
• COP31 Climate Summit: Can World Leaders Restore Global Trust?
• Climate Action from Geneva to Antalya
• Power, finance and climate crisis set to shape COP31 talks in Antalya
• Türkiye to showcase local climate solutions at COP31 amid rising risks
• Türkiye to lead UN climate talks in Antalya next November
• Guterres urges faster action and financing to stop biodiversity loss
• Latest news bulletin, October 17th, 2026
• United Nations Climate Change Conference

Top image: AyşegülAytören / Pixabay

This article was produced by the Intelligence Report Desk. Sources are linked below.