Key takeaways
- Forecasters and prediction markets favour Democrats to win the House in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections, while Senate control remains much closer.
- President Donald Trump rallied in Kansas on October 19, 2026 and dismissed unfavourable polls as fake, with a week of campaign stops in five more states planned.
- Congress can shape foreign policy mainly through spending, hearings and war powers votes, but the president keeps a veto and most executive tools on tariffs and the use of force.
- Allied governments in Europe, the Gulf and Asia are watching the result for signals on the Iran war, Ukraine aid and the durability of US security commitments.
The midterm elections on November 3, 2026 are 14 days away, and forecasts suggest the Democratic Party is positioned to retake the US House of Representatives. President Donald Trump offered a dark vision of a Democratic-led Congress at a Kansas rally on October 19, as foreign governments assess what a shift in Congress could mean for the Iran war, Ukraine aid and tariffs.
A midterm election is a national vote held halfway through a presidential term. All 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats will be contested to determine the next Congress. The president is not on the ballot, but the result will shape how much room he has to act in his final two years.
What did Trump say on the campaign trail?
According to CNN’s live coverage, Trump said riots and looting in France foreshadow what could happen in the US if Democrats win in November. He also dismissed concerns about Republican Senator Roger Marshall in a surprisingly competitive Kansas race, saying “The polls are fake.”
Trump will campaign this week for candidates in North Carolina, South Carolina, Iowa, Florida and Georgia, and return to Texas next week. Early in-person voting began in Texas on October 19, where Democrats hope to break a 32-year losing streak in statewide Senate contests.
At an earlier rally in Ohio on October 12, The Hill reported that Trump said he would be the last Republican president if Democrats won control of Congress and the White House in the next two elections.
How likely is a Democratic win in the midterm elections?
Forecasts favour Democrats in the House by a wide margin. Decision Desk HQ gives Democrats a 77% chance of winning the House and a 56% chance of taking the Senate, according to a Yahoo News roundup. The same report said Polymarket, a prediction market, put Democratic odds at 91% for the House and 65% for the Senate as of October 19.
Polling points the same way. RealClearPolling’s average showed 50.7% favouring Democrats and 42.4% favouring Republicans on the generic congressional ballot as of October 19. A Reuters/Ipsos poll cited by The National put Trump’s approval at a record low of 31%, driven largely by economic discontent.
The Senate is less settled. Democrats hold 47 seats and need 51 to control the chamber. One forecaster, Pollsmax, still puts Republican control at 64.7%, a reminder that models diverge.
What would a Democratic Congress change on Iran and tariffs?
Foreign policy is unusually prominent in this campaign. The National reported that petrol prices have risen nearly 50% and diesel by two thirds since the war against Iran began in February. That cost pressure links the conflict to household finances, and to the oil market covered in Intelligence Report’s analysis of Brent near $110.
House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries, who would be in line to become Speaker, has said his party would act quickly. PBS reported that he named votes against the Iran war and undoing Trump’s tariff regime among Democrats’ early priorities.
The limits are structural. A Reuters scenario analysis, carried by The Detroit News, said that if Democrats win only the House, Trump retains veto power and broad authority over tariffs, immigration and foreign policy. It added that some Republicans may be more willing to break with Trump on unpopular issues such as tariffs and the Iran war.
The Foreign Affairs Forum made a similar point on October 19. It argued that war powers resolutions would likely be vetoed, but the more important lever is appropriations, since a Congress that declines to fund an open-ended campaign can shape the pace of operations.
Could the vote alter US support for Ukraine and NATO allies?
Representative Jim Himes, the senior Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, told European allies that renewed Ukraine aid would be a priority under Democratic control, Breaking Defense reported. He said aid packages would move in nine days or nine weeks, rather than nine months. He added that if Democrats win both chambers and the budget, Trump could be forced to negotiate with the party to fund his priorities.
The Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung’s Ukraine office cautions that legislation is not the same as delivery. It noted that Congress may formally adopt a decision, but practical implementation depends on executive agencies. That caveat matters for current debates, including the resumption of US intelligence sharing with Ukraine, which sits within executive control.
For allied capitals, the Foreign Affairs Forum described hope that a more assertive Congress will constrain the executive, alongside scepticism that a president who commands trade emergency powers and the armed forces will change his conduct. It also reported a gradual shift toward hedging, with governments diversifying security and trade relationships. In the Gulf, an analyst quoted by The National said Democratic scepticism would make a proposed nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia harder to pass through Congress, though probably not beyond the reach of a presidential veto.
What to watch
- November 3, 2026: Election Day, with the House and 35 Senate seats decided. Early voting is already open in Texas.
- Senate battlegrounds: Maine, Texas, Iowa, Ohio and Kansas, where Republican control of the chamber could be tested.
- Trump’s schedule: rallies this week in North Carolina, South Carolina, Iowa, Florida and Georgia, and a return to Texas next week.
- Post-election agenda: whether House Democrats move early votes on Iran war powers and tariffs, and whether any Republicans join them.
- Allied signalling: statements from European, Gulf and Asian governments after the result on defence spending, trade and Ukraine.
Frequently asked questions
When are the 2026 US midterm elections?
The midterm elections take place on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. All 435 House of Representatives seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats are being contested. The results will determine the composition of the next Congress, which takes office in January.
Who is favoured to win the 2026 midterm elections?
Democrats are favoured to win the House. Decision Desk HQ gave them a 77% chance on October 18, and Polymarket put it at 91% on October 19. The Senate is closer: Decision Desk HQ gave Democrats 56%, while Pollsmax favoured Republicans.
Can Congress change US policy on Iran and tariffs?
Only partly. Congress controls spending and can hold hearings, pass war powers resolutions and vote to reverse tariffs. The president can veto such measures, and Congress would need a two-thirds majority in each chamber to override. Executive authority over trade emergencies and military operations largely remains with the White House.
Sources
- Midterm election live updates: Trump ratchets up alarm about Democrats (CNN)
- Latest midterm polls and election odds (Yahoo News)
- US midterms: Iran war and cost of living put Trump's foreign policy under pressure (The National)
- The midterm election outcomes that could shape Trump's final two years (Reuters via The Detroit News)
- Here's what's on House Democrats' agenda if they sweep to power (PBS NewsHour)
- Democratic midterm gains could speed US military aid to Ukraine, lawmaker says (Breaking Defense)
- The Reckoning Without a Ballot (Foreign Affairs Forum)
- Trump says he could be 'last Republican president' (The Hill)
- U.S. Foreign Policy in Context of Midterm Elections: Implications for Ukraine (Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung)
- Senate Forecast (Pollsmax)
Top image: Martin Falbisoner / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 3.0)
This article was produced by the Intelligence Report Desk. Sources are linked below.
