Key takeaways
- The Student List, a movement that grew out of two years of street protests, won Serbia's parliamentary election on October 25, 2026, and Aleksandar Vučić conceded defeat on election night.
- Preliminary results from Serbia's Republic Electoral Commission gave the Student List 52.54 percent and Vučić's coalition 39.29 percent, with more than 96 percent of polling stations counted.
- EU leaders offered support for Serbia's accession path, while the Kremlin said it hopes for continued cooperation and a Student List representative said Serbia would not sanction Russia.
- The decisive questions are how quickly a government forms, whether it adopts EU foreign-policy alignment, and how it handles arms exports and the unresolved Kosovo issue.
The Serbia election held on October 25, 2026 ended in a landslide for the Student List, a movement born from nearly two years of anti-corruption protests. Aleksandar Vučić, who led Serbia for 14 years, conceded defeat on election night. The result matters beyond Belgrade because Serbia is an EU candidate with close ties to Moscow, and Brussels and the Kremlin are both now courting its next government.
According to Euronews, Vučić said the Student List would take between 135 and 140 seats in the 250-member parliament, against about 105 for his Serbian Progressive Party. Euronews separately reported that the list secured 140 seats, enough to govern alone.
What happened in the Serbia election?
Preliminary figures from Serbia’s Republic Electoral Commission, reported by Anadolu Agency and Balkan Insight, showed the Student List on 52.54 percent and Vučić’s United Serbia list on 39.29 percent. Those figures came from more than 96 percent of polling stations. Vučić’s own election-night estimate, cited by Euronews, was about 2.2 million votes for the Student List and about 1.72 million for his party.
Turnout reached 70 percent, the highest since Yugoslavia dissolved in 1992, according to Reuters as cited by The Kyiv Independent. The protest movement began after a train station canopy collapsed in Novi Sad in November 2024 and killed 16 people. Protesters accused the government of corruption and of eroding democratic institutions.
Vučić blamed Serbia’s independent media, alleged interference by unnamed European countries and an “American deep state” for the loss, CBS News reported. The movement is leaderless and fields little-known experts, athletes, farmers and artists. ThePrint noted that no prime minister is yet in sight, so the government’s formation is the next test.
How did the EU respond to the Serbia election result?
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa congratulated the Student List in a joint statement. They said they stood ready to support reforms on the rule of law, media freedom and anti-corruption, and to help build Serbia’s future in the EU, as quoted by Anadolu Agency.
EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos went further. According to Balkan Insight, she said a new chapter could begin for Serbia and that “the door to the EU is open.” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz also said Berlin would actively support Serbia’s European path.
The welcome contrasts with years of friction. Yahoo News noted that Serbia has been a candidate since 2012, with accession talks formally under way since 2014, but that progress largely stalled under its previous leadership. Brussels cited democratic standards, rule of law and Vučić’s ties with Moscow.
What does the Serbia election mean for Russia and sanctions?
Vučić refused to join EU sanctions on Russia while formally seeking EU membership, PBS NewsHour reported. Russian President Vladimir Putin had publicly endorsed him. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on October 26, 2026 that Moscow hopes the new political force will see cooperation with Russia as serving Serbia’s interests.
Peskov added, as reported by RT, that “it takes two to tango.” The Associated Press, in a report carried by the Irish News, described the mood in Moscow as gloomy. It noted that Russia has now lost a second European partner this year, after Hungary’s Viktor Orbán was ousted in an April election.
The new majority’s foreign policy is not settled. Before the vote, the Student List said it would not impose sanctions on Russia, would keep Serbia militarily neutral and would not seek NATO membership, per the AP report. On October 26, Student List representative Jovo Bakić told RT Balkan that Serbia would not change its approach to Russia, according to RT.
The same RT report cited Reuters as saying leading candidates plan to halt arms exports to conflict zones, including sales to Western intermediaries that later supply Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Kyiv is ready to expand cooperation with Belgrade and called the result a new chapter, the Kyiv Independent reported.
Will Serbia now move toward EU membership?
The answer depends on conditions Brussels has long set. ThePrint listed the main obstacles as rule of law, press freedom, limited alignment with EU foreign policy and sanctions, and the unresolved status of Kosovo. It also reported that 75 percent of Student List supporters favour closer EU ties, against 10 percent who prefer closer Russia ties. It added that the movement’s position on European integration remains unclear.
Moscow’s own commentators expect pressure on this point. The newspaper Moskovsky Komsomolets, quoted by the Irish News, said the first decisions of the new cabinet, rather than campaign statements, will show Serbia’s real course. Russia’s reactions have varied: Federation Council deputy speaker Konstantin Kosachev suggested Europe could lose a sovereign country, while nationalist tycoon Konstantin Malofeyev welcomed Vučić’s defeat, per PBS.
What to watch
- Final results: The Republic Electoral Commission’s final tally and seat allocation will settle whether the Student List holds 135 to 140 seats or a different number.
- Government formation: Watch who the movement nominates as prime minister and how quickly a cabinet is confirmed.
- Sanctions and arms exports: Any decision on aligning with EU sanctions on Russia, or on curbing arms sales that reach Ukraine, would be the clearest foreign-policy signal.
- EU steps: Look for Commission moves on stalled accession chapters and any benchmarks tied to rule of law and media freedom.
- Vučić’s next move: Peskov noted that he intends to stay in Serbian politics, so the opposition role of his party will shape the coming months.
Frequently asked questions
Who won the Serbia election on October 25, 2026?
The Student List, a movement that grew out of student-led anti-corruption protests, won. Preliminary results gave it 52.54 percent against 39.29 percent for Aleksandar Vučić's United Serbia list, with more than 96 percent of polling stations counted. Vučić conceded defeat on election night.
Will Serbia impose sanctions on Russia after the election?
Not on current signals. Before the vote, the Student List said it would not introduce sanctions on Russia. On October 26, 2026, representative Jovo Bakić repeated that to RT Balkan. Brussels wants foreign-policy alignment, so the new cabinet's first decisions will show whether that holds.
What did the EU say about the Serbia election result?
Ursula von der Leyen and António Costa congratulated the Student List and said they were ready to support reforms on rule of law, media freedom and anti-corruption, and to advance Serbia's EU future. Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos said the door to the EU is open.
Sources
- Student List wins Serbian election in political earthquake as Vučić concedes defeat
- Aleksandar Vucic, Serbia's Putin-endorsed long-time leader, concedes election defeat
- German leader welcomes Serbia election result, vows support for EU path
- European Leaders Welcome Victory for Serbia's Opposition Student List
- Zelensky says Serbia faces 'new chapter' after Vucic concedes defeat
- Gloom in Moscow as Vucic's defeat in Serbia deprives Russia of an ally
- Serbia's populist strongman Vucic outplayed all his opponents. Then the students came
- Kremlin reacts to Serbian election outcome
- Serbia will not impose Russia sanctions
- EU offers closer ties with Serbia after Student List election win
Top image: kallerna / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0)
This article was produced by the Intelligence Report Desk. Sources are linked below.
