COP31 Opens Monday: Why Few Expect a Breakthrough in Antalya

COP31, the 31st United Nations climate conference, opens on Monday, November 9, 2026, in Antalya, Turkey, with nearly 200 nations attending and expectations for a major breakthrough deliberately kept low. The United States is not expected to attend, and tensions over geopolitics, finance and fossil fuels are tempering hopes, according to AFP via France 24. The talks matter because the world has so far missed its goals on curbing warming, and the poorest countries are waiting on promised money.

What is COP31 and who is running it?

COP31 is the annual Conference of the Parties to the UN climate convention, the forum where governments negotiate emissions cuts, adaptation, carbon markets and climate finance. It runs from November 9 to 20, 2026, at the Antalya Expo Center, according to Climate and Capital Media, and the world leaders’ summit is set for November 11 and 12. The UN Climate Change secretariat’s COP31 page lists the same dates.

The leadership structure is unusual. Turkey is COP31 president, while an Australian representative serves as “President of Negotiations” with exclusive authority over the negotiations, according to the deal text reported by the Associated Press. Turkey’s environment minister, Murat Kurum, is president, and Australia’s Chris Bowen holds the negotiating role. Australia leads the formal negotiations, while Turkey is responsible for the action agenda.

Why are expectations for COP31 so low?

Several pressures are converging. According to the Associated Press, the conflict involving Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and sent fossil fuel prices sharply higher, forcing governments to rethink their energy systems. France 24 reports that the summit takes place under the shadow of a cost-of-living crisis fuelled by the war in the Middle East. Related developments around the strait are covered in Intelligence Report’s analysis of the Hormuz standoff.

France 24 also reports that tougher action on fossil fuels appears unlikely and budget-strapped developed countries are reluctant to commit more money to developing nations. A senior EU official, speaking anonymously to the outlet, said: “We cannot expect a revolution in terms of climate action from the Antalya COP.” AFP separately describes the official negotiating agenda as relatively technical, with no single major decision expected.

Attendance is a further question. Australian Associated Press reported that almost 300 ministers and 91 world leaders are expected among delegations from 196 nations. Climate and Capital Media, by contrast, says the summit will have fewer world leaders than any COP in years. The two accounts have not been reconciled, and final attendance will only be clear once the summit opens.

What is on the negotiating table in Antalya?

According to the Associated Press, negotiators will examine how to follow through on past climate pledges and how to deliver promised funds to poor countries for switching to renewables, adapting to a warmer world and recovering from climate damage. AAP lists the formal agenda as cutting emissions, transitioning away from fossil fuels, overseeing carbon markets, funding projects in developing nations and helping countries hit by climate impacts.

Turkey’s own priorities are narrower. The Global Landscapes Forum reports that Ankara is pushing a “35 by 35” pledge to raise the global electrification rate to 35 percent by 2035. It will also host a high-level dialogue encouraging action on methane emissions from waste.

Climate and Capital Media points to a funding signal on loss and damage: the fund created to pay for climate disasters has written its first check, covering less than 1% of the damage it was meant to repair. That figure comes from a specialist outlet and was not independently confirmed in other coverage reviewed here. On adaptation, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said at the launch of the UN Environment Programme’s Adaptation Gap Report on November 4 that investing in resilience now is cheaper than paying for catastrophe later, according to the title of the UN press release.

What did Guterres say ahead of the talks?

In an interview published by the Associated Press on November 6, 2026, the departing Secretary-General framed the conference in stark terms. “This is a moment of truth,” he said, according to the AP. The outlet reports that he used the phrase three times in a 20-minute interview.

Guterres told the AP that the failure is not the world’s but that of political leadership. He also argued that windfall profits of fossil fuel companies should be taxed and the revenue used to support countries suffering the most severe climate impacts. The AP adds that the Security Council is still deciding who will succeed him as Secretary-General.

What to watch

• November 9: the formal opening in Antalya and the first signals on whether the agenda fights over finance and fossil fuels begin immediately.
• November 11 and 12: the world leaders’ summit, where the actual leader turnout can be compared against the 91 expected and the “fewer leaders” reports.
• US absence: whether delegations from developing countries tie their finance demands to Washington’s non-participation.
• Finance language: any new pledges for adaptation and the loss and damage fund, given donor budget pressure.
• Fossil fuel text: whether Australia’s negotiating team can secure wording on transitioning away from fossil fuels, which reporting suggests is unlikely to be strengthened.
• November 20: the scheduled close, when the final decision text will show how far COP31 moved beyond earlier commitments.

Frequently asked questions

Sources

• AP: UN climate talks start in a year of disasters, energy price shocks and fast rising temperatures
• France 24: Turkey to push for 'electrification' drive at COP31 as climate threats mount
• France 24 (AFP, French): COP31: à Antalya, un monde divisé au chevet du climat
• AP Exclusive: Departing UN chief calls this 'a moment of truth' in fight to curb global warming
• AP Exclusive (full text via La Nacion)
• AP Exclusive (full text via WGAU)
• AP Exclusive (via ClickOnDetroit)
• Climate and Capital Media: COP31 Antalya preview
• The Leader (AAP): Fuel demands, super El Nino turn up the heat on COP31
• Global Landscapes Forum: What is COP31?

Top image: AndyLeungHK / Pixabay

This article was produced by the Intelligence Report Desk. Sources are linked below.