The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), the UN-backed global hunger monitor, warned on Monday 12 October that the risk of famine is growing across Sudan’s Greater Darfur and Greater Kordofan regions. It cited the combined effect of war, mass displacement, an El Niño-driven drought and a deepening funding shortfall. The alert is the most consequential humanitarian signal from the UN system in the past 48 hours. It points to a third year of conflict colliding with a climate shock in a country where famine has already been confirmed.
According to the IPC alert, as reported by Al Jazeera, the drought affects roughly half of the country. The monitor said it is compounding conflict and displacement, reducing food availability and pushing up prices. Without a rapid and substantial increase in assistance, the IPC said, “food insecurity, acute malnutrition, and excess mortality will likely intensify” (as quoted by the Associated Press via PBS NewsHour).
What the alert found
The most serious data come from Eastern Jebel Marra in South Darfur. According to the Sudan Tribune, surveys carried out in August and September recorded global acute malnutrition of 38 per cent and 30.8 per cent in two displacement camps. Both figures exceed the 30 per cent level used in a formal famine classification. UN News described the same two readings as above the famine threshold.
Nutrition indicators are also worsening elsewhere. The Associated Press reported that in Nyala, the share of children admitted to nutrition services with severe acute malnutrition roughly doubled, from about 5 per cent to 11 per cent, between January and August. The Sudan Tribune added that admissions in Kas locality quadrupled between January and June.
Agricultural conditions are poor. The IPC reported that vegetation growth is weak across 64 per cent of cropland in North Darfur, and across about half of cropland in South Darfur, West Kordofan and South Kordofan. The Associated Press said West Kordofan is experiencing one of its worst droughts since 2004, and that North Darfur faces delayed rains and “critically low” food stocks.
The Sudan Tribune, summarising the alert, put nationwide displacement at 8.58 million people and said agricultural failure is spreading across more than half the country. The Associated Press, by contrast, said the war has displaced about 13 million people. The two figures probably reflect different counting methods, such as internal displacement alone against displacement including refugees, but the sources do not say so.
Background
The new alert builds on earlier findings. In November 2025, the IPC found famine conditions in several conflict-affected areas, including El Fasher in North Darfur and Kadugli in South Kordofan, according to Security Council Report. The WFP said at the time that the drivers were conflict, displacement and blocked humanitarian access, and that conditions had eased where fighting subsided.
A further IPC alert on 5 February this year prompted the Security Council to hold closed consultations on Sudan. The UK, the Council’s penholder on the file, requested the meeting together with Bahrain and Denmark, the co-focal points on conflict and hunger, Security Council Report said. This week’s alert has not yet been confirmed to have triggered a comparable session.
Food insecurity was already extreme before the latest deterioration. An IPC assessment in May found nearly 19.5 million people, more than 40 per cent of the population, facing high levels of acute food insecurity, the Associated Press reported. Of those, 135,000 were in Phase 5, the most severe classification.
Access and funding constraints
UN News said aid is not keeping pace with needs because of a severe lack of funding, insecurity and restricted access. It also reported that two trucks contracted by the World Food Programme (WFP) came under fire on 2 and 3 October, killing at least one person.
The IPC called for an end to hostilities, protection of civilians and of food, water and health systems, and safe, sustained access in frontline areas, particularly North and West Kordofan, according to Nigeria’s Gazette. It also urged a scaled-up life-saving response backed by flexible, predictable funding.
The International Rescue Committee, an aid agency, said in a statement that it is urging donors to raise funding for food, health and nutrition. It also called on the warring parties to allow unimpeded access. The agency said the drought threatens areas such as Tawila, which already hosts more than 650,000 displaced people.
Strategic implications
The alert arrives as the humanitarian system faces competing demands. UN officials have pointed to escalating crises in Yemen, Ukraine, Gaza and Haiti in recent days. UNHCR has also reported in its 2026 underfunding report that severe funding cuts are forcing it to scale back core programmes. Sudan’s needs therefore compete with several other emergencies for a limited donor pool.
The alert also shows how climate variability compounds conflict-driven hunger. The IPC attributes the crop failure to El Niño conditions, but the monitor and aid agencies stress that access and security remain the decisive constraints. WFP has said previously that food insecurity has eased in areas where it could deliver assistance, and that famine or famine risk persists where access is limited.
Peace efforts have not changed the picture. The Associated Press noted that repeated attempts to end the war have so far failed.
What to watch
- Security Council action: whether the UK, Bahrain and Denmark request consultations on Sudan, as they did after the February alert.
- Further IPC analysis: any Famine Review Committee finding on the South Darfur camps, where malnutrition exceeds the 30 per cent threshold.
- Convoy security: further attacks on WFP-contracted trucks, and any agreement on access to El Fasher, Kadugli and the Kordofan frontlines.
- Funding: donor announcements for Sudan’s humanitarian response, set against the UN’s wider liquidity pressures.
- Harvest outcomes: assessments of the coming harvest, which the IRC says is expected to be near record-poor across Sudan.
Sources
- Sudan: Drought and war push Darfur and Kordofan towards famine (UN News)
- Conflict, drought increasing risk of famine in Sudan: Monitor (Al Jazeera)
- Sudan's famine risk worsened by conflict, drought and funding shortages, report says (AP via PBS NewsHour)
- Famine risk surges across Sudan's Darfur and Kordofan regions, alert warns (Sudan Tribune)
- War and El Niño-driven drought deplete food stocks, pushing Sudan further towards famine (International Rescue Committee)
- IPC issues food insecurity alert in Sudan, decries decreasing humanitarian funding (Gazette NGR)
- Sudan: Closed Consultations (Security Council Report)
- Famine conditions confirmed in Sudan's El Fasher and Kadugli (WFP)
- UNRIC Info Point & Library Newsletter: October 2026
Top image: Mohamed Elgoni for the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitaria... / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 2.0)
This article was produced by the Intelligence Report Desk. Sources are linked below.
