The UN Security Council is expected to hold its sixth informal straw poll on the next Secretary-General on Friday, October 16. According to diplomats cited by PassBlue and JNS, the ballot may be colour-coded for the first time, which would show how the five permanent members voted. The shift to a more decisive phase comes as António Guterres, 77, completes his second five-year term on December 31. The process has yet to produce a consensus candidate.
The change matters because the choice rests on a mix of formal rules and informal practice. Under Article 97 of the Charter, the General Assembly appoints the Secretary-General on the Security Council’s recommendation. A candidate needs at least nine votes in the Council and no veto from the US, Britain, France, Russia or China.
Where the race stands
Four women and three men are seeking the post. PassBlue lists the field as Rebeca Grynspan of Costa Rica, Rafael Grossi of Argentina, Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett of Guyana, Olara Otunnu, Macky Sall, María Fernanda Espinosa and Ivonne A-Baki.
Grynspan has led most of the five polls held since July. She finished first in four of them. Her most recent result was weaker, however. In the October 7 ballot, according to PassBlue, her “encourage” votes slipped from 10 to 9 and her “discourage” votes doubled to six. In the September 29 poll she had recorded 10 “encourage”, three “discourage” and two “no opinion”.
Rodrigues Birkett, who had been the only candidate to beat Grynspan in any round, fell sharply on October 7. JNS reported five “encourage”, nine “discourage” and one “no opinion” for her. PassBlue said that ballot also placed Grossi in a tentative second place and Rodrigues Birkett third, creating what a Latin American diplomat described as a shortlist.
Earlier in the process, Al Jazeera reported, former Chilean President Michelle Bachelet withdrew after winning support from only one of the 15 Council members in an informal vote.
Why colour-coded ballots change the picture
Straw polls are anonymous, so a “discourage” vote does not show who cast it. PassBlue noted that such ballots can signal a possible veto by a permanent member. Diplomats told PassBlue that the next poll may use ballots that distinguish the P5 preferences from those of the other ten members, without revealing individual countries’ choices.
JNS reported that none of the earlier polls had revealed how the permanent five intend to vote. Colour-coding would therefore be the first real test of whether Grynspan’s six “discourage” votes include a P5 member. It would also show whether any other candidate could clear the threshold without drawing a veto.
There is a clear precedent. Security Council Report noted that in 2016 the final, colour-coded poll was held on October 5. The Council then adopted resolution 2311 recommending Guterres on October 6. In that process, Wikipedia’s summary of the vote records that Guterres finished the last round with 13 “encourage” votes, none “discourage” and two abstentions. The 2026 race is running later than that timetable and without a comparable leader.
Washington’s stated position
The United States holds a veto and has set out its expectations in general terms. The State Department said earlier that the next Secretary-General must get the UN “back to basics” and publicly commit to the changes Washington requires, according to OPB. On October 13, The National reported that a US envoy said the choice should rest on merit rather than regional rotation or gender. That position cuts against an informal convention that the post should rotate among regions, which the same outlet noted has long shaped the selection process. The convention is part of why Latin American candidates have featured so prominently.
Rotation and gender have been recurring arguments in the campaign, because many member states have pressed for the first woman to hold the office. Washington’s stance does not name a preferred candidate, and none of the sources reviewed indicate how Russia, China, France or Britain intend to vote.
Strategic implications
A prolonged deadlock would carry practical costs. The incoming Secretary-General takes office on January 1, 2027, and needs time to assemble a team. The UN is also under financial strain. Guterres told the Fifth Committee this week that “efficiency alone cannot compensate for an unstable financial foundation”, as he presented a proposed 2027 budget of $3.3 billion. The next Secretary-General will inherit that liquidity problem, along with a Council divided over Ukraine, the Middle East and Yemen.
Closed-door dynamics also add uncertainty. PassBlue’s October 14 report on rumours in the UN corridors suggests that Grynspan could consolidate her lead this week, or new candidates could enter after it. New entrants are possible because there is no formal deadline for nominations. The Tico Times noted that a veto against her has not been ruled out.
What to watch
- October 16 straw poll: whether it is colour-coded, and whether Grynspan regains 10 “encourage” votes or falls further from the nine-vote threshold.
- P5 signals: any leaked indication of which permanent members cast “discourage” votes, and against whom.
- Withdrawals or new entrants: the Rodrigues Birkett result in particular, after her fall on October 7, and any late nomination.
- Formal recommendation: a private-meeting resolution to the General Assembly, which would follow a decisive poll as it did in 2016.
- Calendar pressure: the December 31 end of Guterres’ term and the Council’s ability to avoid a gap in the office.
Sources
- Fifth Security Council Straw Poll on UN Secretary-General Candidates
- The UN Corridor Rumors Hanging Over the Secretary-General Race
- Big Shakeup in Latest Security Council Votes on UN SecGen Race
- US envoy says next UN Secretary General should be chosen on merit, not rotation or gender
- Rebeca Grynspan Tops Fourth UN Security Council Straw Poll
- Jewish politician still frontrunner to be next UN secretary-general, but race still open
- UN secretary general race: Security Council veto wielders still undecided
- What to know as world leaders converge at the United Nations this week
- UN General Assembly 2026: When is it, who is speaking and when?
- 'Need for UN has never been greater,' UN chief says, proposing slimmer $3.3 billion budget for 2027
Top image: Jdforrester / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY 4.0)
This article was produced by the Intelligence Report Desk. Sources are linked below.
