Key takeaways
- The head of the World Meteorological Organization, Celeste Saulo, said on October 21, 2026 that the current El Nino could be unprecedented in strength, beyond the monitoring charts used for four decades.
- The WMO forecast would be the highest three-month reading since observations began, above the previous record of 2.6C set in 2015-2016.
- UN humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher warned that 50 million people could face increased hunger.
- The UN released $50 million for 11 frontline countries including Chad and Somalia. Fletcher said the humanitarian system cannot cope with a threat of this scale alone.
The El Nino warning issued by the United Nations on October 21, 2026 says the current climate event could be stronger than anything in modern records. At a joint press conference in Geneva, World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Secretary-General Celeste Saulo and UN humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher called for urgent, coordinated preventive action before the expected peak late this year. Fletcher described the next two weeks as the critical window to act.
El Nino is a naturally occurring warming of the tropical Pacific that shifts weather patterns worldwide, bringing drought to some regions and floods to others. The UN weather agency said this year’s event will bring higher temperatures to much of the planet and compound the effects of human-driven climate change.
What did the UN say in its El Nino warning?
Saulo said the event could be unprecedented in strength, “literally off the monitoring charts” used for the past four decades. She added that extreme weather is already occurring and is expected to multiply and cascade as the phenomenon intensifies. The two officials issued a joint call for anticipatory action, with Saulo noting that El Nino cannot be stopped but many of its worst human consequences can be prevented.
Anticipatory action means agreeing in advance which forecast thresholds trigger funding, food, water and health measures, so that help arrives before or as impacts land. Fletcher called the coming event a “wrecking ball” of extreme heat, drought and flooding. He warned that the damage will not stay in the countries in its direct path and will create economic shocks, and drive conflict, displacement and migration.
How strong could this El Nino become?
According to the WMO’s latest seasonal updates, Pacific sea surface temperatures may reach 3.8C above average between November and January. That would be the highest three-month measurement since observations began, surpassing the 2.6C recorded in 2015-2016.
The warning follows earlier alerts from other UN bodies. The World Food Programme (WFP) said on October 13, 2026 that El Nino is firmly established and strengthening, with a peak expected between October and December and impacts continuing through 2027 and into early 2028. UNICEF data reported by UN News indicate that more than 347 million children in nearly 100 countries and territories may face unusually wet or dry conditions between October and December 2026.
Who is most at risk from El Nino?
Fletcher said Latin America, eastern and southern Africa, Asia and the Pacific face the greatest exposure. He stressed that the long-term impact will be felt for months and potentially years, because the event overlays existing crises: widespread conflict and displacement, high fuel, fertiliser and food prices, and deep aid cuts. He warned that tens of millions of people could be pushed into humanitarian need, and that 50 million could face increased hunger.
The WFP’s own analysis points the same way. It suggests El Nino could significantly worsen food insecurity in at least 45 countries. The funding squeeze is a recurring concern across the system. The UN refugee agency, UNHCR, said on October 12, 2026 that it had received just $3 billion of the $8.5 billion it needs this year.
What does the El Nino warning mean for food prices?
Price effects are already part of the backdrop. Newsweek reported that the UN Food and Agriculture Organization put world food prices in August at their highest level since 2022. FAO chief economist Maximo Torero told CNN that prices were already climbing because of geopolitical tensions, trade barriers and now El Nino. He said the extent of any further increase depends on the event’s severity and on national policy responses.
Private forecasters offer a range of estimates. Oxford Economics projected, in an earlier study, a 12% global food price rise in 2026 and 5% in 2027, citing fertiliser shortages tied to the Strait of Hormuz closure and grain pressure from the war in Ukraine. Those figures predate this week’s WMO forecast and were not part of the UN announcement.
What did the UN commit, and is it enough?
Euronews reported that $50 million has been released for 11 frontline countries, including Chad and Somalia. The announcement did not specify how the money will be divided. Fletcher’s central message was that the sum is a starting point rather than a solution.
He said the humanitarian system cannot alone cope with a threat on this scale, and urged governments, development banks and international financial institutions to release funding before the damage is done, not afterwards. He also said he was contacting countries with established emergency response capabilities to ask that they place resources on standby.
The event also feeds into the wider climate agenda. The UN’s climate diplomacy has been shaped by warnings about warming trajectories, as covered in the broader security picture affecting Gulf shipping and energy, which compounds fuel and fertiliser costs cited by Fletcher.
What to watch
- Early November 2026: the end of the two-week window Fletcher described as critical. Watch for pledges from governments, development banks and international financial institutions.
- November to January: the WMO’s forecast peak period for Pacific sea surface temperatures of up to 3.8C above average.
- Follow-on allocations: whether the $50 million for 11 countries is topped up, and which additional countries are added.
- Food price data: the next FAO food price readings and WFP assessments for the 45 countries it flags as vulnerable.
- Harvest cycles into 2027: the WFP expects effects to extend into early 2028 because of knock-on impacts on harvests.
Frequently asked questions
What did the UN say about El Nino on October 21, 2026?
WMO chief Celeste Saulo and UN humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher said in Geneva that the current El Nino could be unprecedented in strength. They issued a joint call for urgent, coordinated anticipatory action and said the next two weeks are the critical window to act.
How hot could the Pacific get during this El Nino?
The WMO's latest seasonal update forecasts that tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures may reach 3.8C above average between November and January. Reporting by AFP via France 24 says that would be the highest three-month reading since observations began, exceeding the 2.6C record of 2015-2016.
How many people could be affected by El Nino hunger?
Tom Fletcher said 50 million people could face increased hunger, and tens of millions could be pushed into humanitarian need. The World Food Programme separately estimates El Nino could significantly worsen food insecurity in at least 45 countries, with effects lasting into 2027 and early 2028.
Sources
- UN issues call to arms to combat off-the-charts El Nino
- UN warns El Nino could be strongest on record as it urges world to prepare
- UN issues call to arms to combat 'off the charts' El Niño
- El Nino could be 'literally off the monitoring charts': UN
- Experts warn El Niño weather pattern could be "literally off the monitoring charts"
- What is El Niño, how does it affect hunger and how does WFP respond?
- From drought to deluge: 'Super' El Niño's expanding reach
- 'Efficiency has limits': UNHCR chief warns refugee protection is buckling under cuts
- 'A wrecking ball': UN warns El Niño could wreak havoc across continents
- How El Niño will drive up the cost of foods you love
Top image: RomanDeckert / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0)
This article was produced by the Intelligence Report Desk. Sources are linked below.
