FTSE 100 Index Falls Over 1% as Oil, Midterms and BoE Collide

The FTSE 100 index, the benchmark of the 100 largest companies listed in London, closed more than 1% lower on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, ending a four-session winning streak. According to MT Newswires, the fall came amid a global equity sell-off and uncertainty over the US midterm elections, while Reuters pointed to a rebound in oil prices that revived inflation worries. The move matters because it landed two days before a widely expected Bank of England interest rate rise.

Share Talk reported that the index fell 122.90 points to 10,638.43, reversing Monday’s gains. The FTSE 250 declined 0.5% to 24,674.91, the same report said. The index is operated by FTSE Russell and had set an all-time high of 10,989.45, according to market data providers.

Why did the FTSE 100 index fall on November 3?

Three pressures overlapped. Reuters reported that oil rose more than 1.5% on Tuesday, after a 7% fall on Monday, once an Iranian official said a deal to end the war remained far off. Elevated energy prices have fanned inflation fears, and many central banks have raised rates, Reuters added.

The second pressure came from mining stocks. According to Share Talk, Endeavour Mining dropped 4.7%, Antofagasta fell 3.5%, and both Glencore and Anglo American lost 2.8% as metal prices weakened. Another market report described the miners as sliding to a near four-month low.

Company news added to the weight. Associated British Foods weakened after lower earnings and a cautious outlook, while global technology losses pressured sentiment, according to AD HOC NEWS. Reuters said aerospace and defence shares were among the largest drags in morning trade, with Rolls-Royce and Relx each down more than 1.6%.

Accounts of the geopolitical trigger differ. Share Talk linked the decline to fresh US military strikes on Iran, whereas Reuters tied the oil move to the Iranian official’s comments on the negotiating outlook. The earlier strikes are examined in US Strikes Iranian Island: What It Means for Oil and a Hormuz Deal.

What does the Bank of England decision mean for UK stocks?

The Bank of England announces its decision at 1200 GMT on Thursday, November 5, followed by a press conference with Governor Andrew Bailey at 1230 GMT, according to Traders Union, citing Reuters. Economists polled by Reuters expect Bank Rate to rise to 4.0% from 3.75%, which would be the first increase since August 2023.

A Bloomberg survey of 35 economists, conducted on October 29 and 30, found that all respondents expect the move to 4%. Economists at ING and Goldman Sachs both expect a 7-2 vote and a second increase in February, according to Investing.com.

The hike itself is largely priced in, so the guidance may matter more. Reuters reported that the Bank may push back on investor bets for several further increases. Alexander Harvey of Oxford Economics said the minutes or Bailey could signal that Bank Rate is unlikely to reach the level markets have priced, according to FXStreet.

Government bond markets are already reflecting the caution. MarketScreener reported that the 10-year UK gilt yield rose 3.9 basis points to 5.230% on Tuesday. The 10-year German Bund yield rose 1.4 basis points to 3.309%, and French, Belgian and Italian bonds underperformed on fiscal concerns.

How are the US midterm elections affecting the FTSE 100 index?

Reuters said a strong Democratic showing is priced in, and that the result could set the tone for global markets this week. In a Reuters report on Monday, investors flagged the risk of higher US corporate taxes and tighter AI regulation if Democrats win decisively.

Patrick Munnelly, market strategist at Tickmill Group, said prospective Democratic gains inject regulatory uncertainty around AI oversight and next year’s debt-ceiling mechanics, according to MarketScreener. For a London index weighted toward energy, mining, banking and defence, the transmission channel runs mainly through the dollar, commodity prices and global risk appetite. For wider context, see Midterm Elections 2026: What a New Congress Means for the World.

European inflation is also diverging by country, which complicates the policy picture across the continent, as covered in Eurozone Inflation Splits: What Italy’s 5.4% Means for the ECB.

What to watch

• US midterm results (from the evening of November 3): the size of any Democratic majority, and the market reaction in Asia and Europe on November 4.
• Bank of England decision (November 5, 1200 GMT): the vote split (a 7-2 outcome is the base case cited by ING and Goldman Sachs), updated inflation forecasts and any pushback on market pricing.
• Oil and Iran diplomacy: whether crude keeps swinging on statements about a deal to end the war.
• Sterling and gilts: the 10-year gilt yield near 5.23% and the pound, which traded near $1.34 earlier this week, according to FXStreet.
• US non-farm payrolls: the jobs report later this week, flagged by Sharecast News as part of a busy calendar.

Frequently asked questions

Sources

• FTSE 100 slips as inflation fears build on oil rise (Reuters via Euronext)
• FTSE 100 falls 123 points as Iran strikes unsettle markets (Share Talk)
• FTSE 100 closes 1.03% lower as risk aversion returns (AD HOC NEWS)
• BOE to Raise Interest Rates for First Time Since 2023, Survey Shows (Bloomberg)
• Bank of England poised to raise rates but may push back on bets for more (Reuters via Finwire)
• Treasury, European Government Bond Yields Rise as Markets Await U.S. Midterm Election Results (MarketScreener)
• BoE expected to hike rates this week. More to follow? (Investing.com)
• Euro weakens against British Pound on soft German Retail Sales (FXStreet)
• European Stocks Flat, Oil Drops as Midterm Caution Prevails (Reuters via GuruTrade)
• Bank of England set to raise rates as markets weigh path for further tightening (Traders Union)

Top image: Julian Herzog (Website) / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY 4.0)

This article was produced by the Intelligence Report Desk. Sources are linked below.