Key takeaways
- Spot gold traded near $4,135 an ounce on November 5, 2026, its highest level since October 22, after a rise of more than 3% on November 4.
- The rally followed Democratic wins in both chambers of Congress, which pushed down the US dollar, Treasury yields and oil prices.
- Markets still assign roughly an 82% probability to a Federal Reserve rate hike in December, which makes gold vulnerable to strong US data.
- The US October jobs report, due on November 6, is the next test of whether gold can hold above the $4,000 level.
The gold price today is near $4,135 an ounce. According to a Reuters price table cited by Discovery Alert, spot gold traded at $4,134.83 at 03:16 GMT on Thursday, November 5, 2026, up almost 2% and at its highest since October 22. The advance extends a sharp rally on November 4, when Democratic victories in the US midterm elections weakened the dollar and Treasury yields and pushed oil lower.
The move matters beyond bullion. Gold is acting as a gauge of how investors are repricing US monetary policy, the dollar and the risk of a prolonged US-Iran conflict at the same time.
Why did gold jump after the US midterm elections?
Gold had been weak before the vote. Finwire reported that the metal fell to $3,869.85 on October 30, its lowest level since October 2025. On November 4, spot gold rose 3.34% to $4,059.39, and December futures settled 3.36% higher at $4,072.30, according to the same digest.
Seeking Alpha described the gain as the largest daily rise since August 5, with silver futures climbing 5.1% to $52.12 an ounce. Babypips put the US Dollar Index at 101.51, down 0.4%, while the 10-year Treasury yield eased by about 6 basis points to 4.89%.
Oil was the third driver. CaixaBank Research said Brent closed nearly 9% lower, below $95 a barrel, as investors judged that a Democratic-controlled Congress could constrain the administration and raise the chances of de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict. Tickmill’s Thursday outlook cited Brent at $93.94. For background on the oil move, see Intelligence Report’s analysis of the FTSE 100 fall as oil, midterms and the Bank of England collided.
What is driving the gold price today?
Gold pays no interest, so its appeal rises when yields and the dollar fall. Rio Times noted that lower yields reduce the cost of holding the metal, and a weaker dollar makes it cheaper for buyers using other currencies. That mechanism explains most of the November 4 jump.
The picture is less straightforward on policy. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, cited by FXEmpire, traders assigned about an 82% probability to a Federal Reserve rate increase in December as of Thursday. Higher rates normally weigh on gold, so the market is in effect betting that falling oil can offset a still-hawkish rate path.
XTB’s morning note said Citi argues that a lasting reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could turn the Fed from hikes toward cuts. Such a shift would favour gold further. The same note flagged a separate hike signal from the Bank of England, which was expected to lift Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 4% at noon London time on Thursday.
The wider backdrop is restrictive. See.news reported that G10 central banks delivered 14 rate increases totalling 350 basis points in 2026, with no cuts recorded in that group. The European Central Bank held its rate at 2.5% on October 29 while signalling that a December increase was increasingly likely, the same source said.
Can gold hold $4,000 if the Fed raises rates?
Analysts are split on durability. IC Markets warned in its November 5 note that the election-driven moves could partly reverse, putting pressure back on gold and equities. Discovery Alert framed $4,000 as the key technical and psychological line, with a break above $4,200 needing a sustained hold first.
The nearest test is US employment data. The October nonfarm payrolls report is due on Friday, November 6, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. Rio Times gave the consensus as 65,000 new jobs, against 29,000 previously, with unemployment steady at 4.2%.
A strong print would reinforce hike expectations and lift yields, which would pressure gold, according to TradingKey. A weak report could pull yields lower and help the metal extend its rebound. Because a hike is already largely priced, the surprise component matters more than the headline number.
Oil is the second variable. The price relief rests on investor expectations of diplomacy, not on a settlement. Trading Economics noted that Washington and Tehran remain far from a deal to end their conflict. Readers can follow the military and energy side in Intelligence Report’s piece on US strikes on an Iranian island and a possible Hormuz deal.
What to watch
- Bank of England decision, November 5, 12:00 London time: the expected move to 4% would be the first hike since August 2023, per Trading Economics. The vote split and forward guidance will shape sterling and global rate expectations.
- US jobs report, November 6: payrolls against the 65,000 consensus, plus wage growth, will move December Fed odds.
- Fed hike probability: a drop from roughly 82% in CME FedWatch pricing would support gold; a rise would test the $4,000 level.
- Brent crude near $94: a rebound above $100 would revive the inflation concerns that lifted rate-hike bets.
- Dollar Index: Rio Times flagged 101.49 as the level to watch, with a rebound hurting gold and silver.
- ECB in December: further signals of a hike after the October 29 hold.
Frequently asked questions
What is the gold price today?
Spot gold traded at $4,134.83 an ounce at 03:16 GMT on Thursday, November 5, 2026, up almost 2% and the highest since October 22, according to a Reuters price table cited by Discovery Alert. Other trackers showed prices between roughly $4,115 and $4,138 during Asian and early European trading.
Why did gold prices rise after the US midterm elections?
Democratic wins in both chambers of Congress weakened the US dollar and Treasury yields and cut oil prices as investors bet on gold-friendly conditions and possible de-escalation with Iran. Seeking Alpha reported the largest daily gain since August 5. Lower yields and a softer dollar make non-yielding gold more attractive.
Could a Federal Reserve rate hike push gold below $4,000?
It could. Higher rates raise the opportunity cost of holding gold. CME FedWatch assigned roughly 82% odds of a December Fed hike, per FXEmpire. A strong US jobs report on November 6 could reinforce those bets and lift yields, while a weak one could support the metal.
Sources
- Gold Price Jumps Above $4,100 as Midterms Drag Dollar and Yields Lower
- Evening digest: oil falls 8%, gold rallies after Democrats' election victory
- Gold soars past $4,000 in biggest daily gain since August
- Financial Markets Daily Report 05 November 2026 (CaixaBank Research)
- Financial & Forex Market Recap: Nov. 4, 2026 (Babypips)
- Gold Forecast: What's Next After Its Biggest Daily Gain Since August? (FXEmpire)
- What Drives the Market: Top Morning News, November 5, 2026 (XTB)
- Global Economy Briefing, November 5, 2026 (Rio Times)
- Gold gets support from midterm sweep, analysis (TradingKey)
- General Market Analysis, 05 November 2026 (IC Markets)
Top image: G. Edward Johnson / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY 4.0)
This article was produced by the Intelligence Report Desk. Sources are linked below.
