Key takeaways
- Rebeca Grynspan of Costa Rica received 12 "encourage" and three "discourage" votes in the Security Council's eighth straw poll on November 5, 2026, according to diplomats cited by Reuters.
- A candidate needs at least nine Security Council votes and no veto from a permanent member before the General Assembly can appoint the next UN secretary-general.
- Turkey's nominee, Feridun Sinirlioglu, received three encouraging and eight discouraging votes, and Cyprus and Greece challenged him at a General Assembly dialogue.
- António Guterres's term ends in December, and his successor is due to take office on January 1, 2027.
The race for the next UN secretary-general has a clear front-runner but no settled outcome. Rebeca Grynspan, a former vice president of Costa Rica, won 12 “encourage” votes and three “discourage” votes in the Security Council’s eighth informal straw poll on November 5, 2026, according to diplomats cited by GreekReporter, which drew on Reuters. The result matters because António Guterres’s term ends this year and the Council has not yet recommended a successor.
A straw poll is an informal, closed-door ballot in which the 15 Council members mark each candidate “encourage,” “discourage” or “no opinion.” The UN does not publish the results, so figures come from diplomats. Under UN rules, a candidate needs at least nine favorable Council votes and no veto from any of the five permanent members, after which the General Assembly makes the appointment, GreekReporter noted.
Who is leading the race for the next UN secretary-general?
Grynspan gained one vote compared with the previous week’s poll, according to Kiprinform, which described 12 votes as her best result so far. Rafael Grossi of Argentina, director general of the UN nuclear watchdog, placed second with nine “encourage” votes. Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett of Guyana was third with eight, and both totals were close to those of the prior poll.
The Latin American front-runner fits a widely cited, unwritten custom. PassBlue reported that the post is expected to rotate among regional groups, and that this cycle is widely seen as the turn of Latin America and the Caribbean. The National reported that a US envoy has argued the choice should rest on merit, not rotation or gender.
Twelve votes is above the nine-vote threshold, but it does not settle the question. The three “discourage” votes could include a permanent member. Because the Council switched back to undifferentiated ballots for its seventh and eighth polls, according to Xinhua, the results do not show who cast them. The Council normally uses a later round to reveal whether any veto exists, as Wikipedia’s overview of the process explains.
Why did Turkey’s candidate draw so much scrutiny?
Turkey formally nominated Feridun Sinirlioglu on November 1, 2026, according to Bytes Europe. He is the secretary general of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe and a former Turkish foreign minister and UN ambassador. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said the nomination was meant to help break the deadlock, the Cyprus Mail reported.
His first straw poll was weak. The National, as cited by GreekReporter, reported that he received three encouraging votes, eight discouraging votes and four expressions of no opinion.
At the General Assembly’s interactive dialogue with candidates, Cyprus and Greece pressed him on international law. The Cyprus Mail reported that Sinirlioglu pledged “impartiality” but did not directly answer most of their questions. According to Kiprinform, Cyprus’s ambassador, Maria Michael, cited a 2022 letter he wrote in a national capacity, which she said argued that the Republic of Cyprus ceased to exist as a legal entity in 1963.
Bytes Europe reported that the European Union and Israel also raised questions, and that the exchanges covered the Turkey-Libya maritime memorandum. Cyprus has since launched an international campaign against his bid, Kiprinform reported.
What does the deadlock mean for the UN’s leadership transition?
The timeline is tight. Guterres’s term expires at the end of 2026, Xinhua reported, and the successor is expected to start on January 1, 2027. Latvia holds the Council presidency for November, and its ambassador, Sanita Pavluta-Deslandes, confirmed the eighth poll to reporters.
Kiprinform noted that the Council needed six straw polls to settle on Guterres in October 2016. This cycle has already run to eight, and a new candidate entered after the seventh.
Greece sits on the Council, but it has no veto, according to GreekReporter. France has avoided saying publicly whether it would support a Turkish candidate, given its ties to Athens and Nicosia, Bytes Europe reported. The same outlet reported that Israel has sought to persuade Washington to block his appointment. These are reported positions, and none of the governments concerned has confirmed a voting intention in the sources reviewed.
Russia has signaled flexibility on the field. According to The National, Moscow said it would consider a wider field of candidates if no regional candidate won enough support.
Guterres, meanwhile, is preparing to lead his last climate conference. In an Associated Press interview carried by Arab News, he said his advice to his successor is “Tell the truth.” For background on that summit, see COP31 Opens Monday: Why Few Expect a Breakthrough in Antalya.
What to watch
- November 9, 2026: Sinirlioglu is scheduled to hold informal consultations with Security Council members, according to The National.
- The ninth straw poll: The sources reviewed give no confirmed date. Watch whether Grynspan stays at or above 12 votes and whether Sinirlioglu’s discourage count changes.
- A return to color-coded ballots: A ballot that distinguishes permanent-member votes would show whether any veto stands against the front-runner or the Turkish nominee.
- A formal Council vote: The Council holds one only once a contender looks likely to succeed, as Kiprinform noted. A recommendation to the General Assembly would follow.
- New nominations: Russia’s reference to a wider field leaves open the possibility of further entrants if the front-runner stalls.
Frequently asked questions
How is the next UN secretary-general chosen?
The Security Council holds informal straw polls, then a formal vote. A candidate needs at least nine of 15 votes and no veto from the five permanent members. The Council then recommends that person to the General Assembly, which makes the appointment.
Who is leading the race for UN secretary-general?
Rebeca Grynspan, a former Costa Rican vice president, leads. In the eighth straw poll on November 5, 2026, she received 12 "encourage" and three "discourage" votes, according to diplomats cited by Reuters. Rafael Grossi of Argentina placed second with nine encouraging votes.
When will the next UN secretary-general take office?
The successor to António Guterres is expected to take office on January 1, 2027. Guterres's term ends at the end of 2026. As of November 8, 2026, the Security Council had not yet voted formally on a recommendation to the General Assembly.
Sources
- Rebeca Grynspan Extends Lead in Race for UN Secretary-General
- Costa Rica's Grynspan extends lead in race to become next UN secretary general
- Rebeca Grynspan Widens Lead in latest UN Security Council Poll for Secretary-General
- Security Council holds 8th straw poll on candidates for next UN chief (Xinhua)
- Cyprus and Greece press Turkish UN chief candidate on international law (Cyprus Mail)
- Cyprus and Greece press Turkey's UN chief candidate Feridun Sinirlioglu at General Assembly dialogue
- Cyprus, Greece and Israel Challenge Turkish UN Chief Candidate (Bytes Europe)
- Cyprus launches international campaign to block Turkey's Sinirlioglu
- Turkey Officially Enters Race for UN Secretary-General (Bytes Europe)
- Departing UN chief calls this 'a moment of truth' in fight to curb global warming (AP via Arab News)
Top image: MusikAnimal / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0)
This article was produced by the Intelligence Report Desk. Sources are linked below.
