Key takeaways
- The 49th ASEAN Summit and Related Summits is scheduled for November 16 to 18, 2026, at the Philippine International Convention Center in Metro Manila, with the Philippines as 2026 chair.
- Donald Trump, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Mark Carney have been confirmed by the hosts, while Chinese Premier Li Qiang is expected and President Xi Jinping is not.
- A South China Sea code of conduct is the headline deliverable, but Philippine reporting indicates it is not expected to be concluded at the Manila meeting.
- The summit sits between a US-China trade truce due to run to January 10, 2027, and the APEC leaders' meeting in Shenzhen, which Trump is due to attend straight afterward.
The ASEAN summit Manila, the 49th leaders’ gathering of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, is scheduled for November 16 to 18, 2026, with the Philippines hosting as this year’s chair. According to AFP, hosts confirmed on November 6 that US President Donald Trump, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will attend. The meeting matters because it combines the South China Sea dispute, US-China rivalry and a post-midterm reset of American diplomacy in one venue.
The Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs said it expects Chinese Premier Li Qiang, according to the Philippine Daily Inquirer. President Xi Jinping is not expected to attend, and the Inquirer noted he has never joined an ASEAN summit in person.
Who is attending the ASEAN summit Manila?
The Inquirer reported that the summit is expected to bring together leaders of the 11 ASEAN member states and heads of government from 12 dialogue partners. These include Trump, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has also invited Russian President Vladimir Putin, although Moscow has not confirmed his participation.
AFP reported that China, Japan and South Korea, ASEAN’s East Asian dialogue partners, will also be represented, though Beijing had not named its official representative. The host nation has said UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is also expected, according to the same report.
Dates vary slightly between outlets. AFP’s report refers to November 15 to 18 for the summit and related meetings, while the Philippine foreign affairs department and other Philippine outlets cite November 16 to 18. Trump’s own Manila appearance has been reported as November 16 by a summary citing the White House, whereas the Malaysian newspaper The Star earlier reported that the chair moved the summit from November 11-13 so Trump could meet ASEAN leaders on November 17.
What is on the agenda, and will a South China Sea code of conduct be finished?
The Manila Times reported that the Philippines set four deliverables for its chairmanship: a code of conduct with China in the South China Sea, an ASEAN Centre on Maritime Studies in Manila, a Digital Economy Framework and promotion of the “silver economy”. A code of conduct is a negotiated set of rules meant to govern behavior among claimants in a disputed waterway.
The code is the hardest item. Rappler reported that ASEAN foreign ministers set a goal in 2023 to finish the talks by 2026, but that the code is not expected to be concluded by the Manila summit. Some other accounts have been more optimistic: a summary of pre-summit statements says Malaysia’s foreign minister expected it to be finalized there.
The International Crisis Group has described why deadlines keep slipping. It cites disagreements over whether the code would be legally binding, how it would be enforced, how to define the sea’s geographic scope and whether third-party militaries could operate there, in an analysis published earlier this year (Crisis Group).
What does the summit mean for Trump and US-China relations?
Trump arrives after a midterm election defeat. Rappler wrote that countries he has targeted with tariffs and military action are watching to see what he does next. For related analysis, see Intelligence Report’s piece on what Congress can do about Trump’s tariffs and on what Trump can still do before Democrats take over.
The South China Morning Post reported that Trump is expected to press for tariff and critical-minerals concessions in Manila while remaining firm on China. It added that visiting a treaty ally just before meeting Xi could reassure regional partners and give Washington some leverage, according to analysts it quoted.
Trump is due to travel on to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders’ meeting in Shenzhen, where The Star reported he would meet Xi. That sequence matters because the US-China trade truce was extended to January 10, 2027, according to CNBC’s report of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s announcement. Reporting from a trade-law outlet noted that some legal suspensions still carry earlier dates on paper, so formal Chinese notices remain a point to track.
Where does the Quad fit in?
The Philippine Star reported that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed a leaders’ meeting of the Quad, the grouping of Australia, India, Japan and the United States, on the sidelines of the Manila gathering. It would be the group’s first leaders’ summit since 2024. The Wire reported earlier this year that the Quad has framed its Southeast Asian engagement as reassurance, because it is meeting on ASEAN’s turf.
Manila is balancing two relationships. The Philippine foreign department said Marcos wants a stable, respectful relationship with China, and Rappler reported that Beijing expects Marcos to attend APEC in Shenzhen. The Inquirer also noted that Beijing recently accused Manila of obstructing its participation, an allegation Philippine officials rejected.
What to watch
- November 16 to 18: the summit sessions, including the ASEAN-China and East Asia Summit formats, and any chair’s statement on the South China Sea.
- Code of conduct language: whether leaders announce a conclusion, a roadmap or only “progress,” and whether the text is described as legally binding.
- China’s delegation: whether Beijing formally names Li Qiang and whether Xi’s absence is confirmed.
- Quad meeting: a confirmed date and any joint statement on maritime security.
- APEC in Shenzhen: the expected Trump-Xi meeting and any move on the January 10, 2027 truce deadline.
- Putin’s response: whether Moscow answers Marcos’s invitation.
Frequently asked questions
When is the ASEAN summit in Manila?
The 49th ASEAN Summit and Related Summits is scheduled for November 16 to 18, 2026, at the Philippine International Convention Center in Metro Manila. Some outlets, including AFP, refer to meetings beginning November 15. The Philippines chairs ASEAN in 2026, and President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is hosting.
Who is attending the ASEAN summit in Manila?
Philippine hosts confirmed US President Donald Trump, Brazil's Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Canada's Mark Carney. The foreign affairs department expects Chinese Premier Li Qiang, not Xi Jinping. Modi, Takaichi and Albanese are also expected, and Putin has been invited without confirming.
Will the South China Sea code of conduct be finished at the summit?
It is not expected to be, according to Rappler's reporting on Philippine statements, although some officials earlier expressed hope. The code has been negotiated for over two decades. Disputes persist over whether it would be legally binding, how it would be enforced, its geographic scope and third-party military activity.
Sources
- Brazil's Lula to join other world leaders at ASEAN summit (Arab News, AFP)
- No Xi, but Li of China expected in PH-hosted Asean summit (Philippine Daily Inquirer)
- Philippines tries to ease tensions with China as ASEAN Summit nears (Rappler)
- [Rappler's Best] Who's coming to town? (Rappler)
- PH to take center stage in Asean Summit (The Manila Times)
- Manila's Push for a New Rulebook in the South China Sea Peters Out (International Crisis Group)
- Trump's return puts Asean's balancing act to the test (The Star)
- Trump's second Asean summit presence comes at a price for region (South China Morning Post)
- Philippines to host Quad leaders' summit during ASEAN meet (The Philippine Star)
- U.S.-China trade truce extended for two months, Bessent says (CNBC)
Top image: Brutalist Pilipinas / Wikimedia Commons (CC0)
This article was produced by the Intelligence Report Desk. Sources are linked below.
