Oil Price Slides 3.6% on Iran Restraint, but Hormuz Risk Remains

The oil price fell sharply on Monday, November 9, 2026, with Brent crude down 3.6% to $94.83 a barrel by 1219 GMT and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) down 2.9% to $88.17, according to Reuters. The move followed a statement by US President Donald Trump that renewed attacks on Iran were unlikely while talks to end the war make progress. Markets are pricing in diplomacy even though no agreement has been signed and ships are still being hit near the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent is the international benchmark used to price roughly two thirds of the world’s crude. Its direction matters well beyond energy traders because it feeds into fuel costs, inflation and central bank decisions.

Why did the oil price fall on November 9?

Trump told CNN that a return to attacks depended on whether Iran signs what he called a “very strong agreement”, adding that new strikes were “highly unlikely” to be necessary, CNBC reported. He had hinted at renewed attacks after the US midterm elections, but RTE, citing Reuters, noted there has been no sign of a large-scale US military operation.

Analysts attributed the slide to expectations rather than events. Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank said oil was trading lower on hopes of a US-Iran peace deal rather than concrete signs of progress. Giovanni Staunovo of UBS pointed to weakness in the physical market, supported by still-elevated flows out of the Middle East.

The decline extends a sharp retreat. Brent settled at $98.32 on Friday, November 6, and CNBC reported a weekly fall of more than 16%. Data cited by financial site FinanceFeeds put the previous Friday’s settlement at $117.64, which implies the size of the drop.

What is the Iran proposal moving the oil price?

According to Reuters, Iran’s plan would end the US blockade of its ports, lift some sanctions and halt bombing in return for Tehran ending its own blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Nuclear talks and discussion of other sanctions would follow. Iran has said the sequence could be compressed into two days.

Axios, citing regional sources, described a version in which the US lifts its naval blockade and releases some frozen Iranian funds on day one. Iran would then invite International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors to bombed nuclear sites, and Hormuz would reopen on day two. Axios reported that Trump will meet Qatar’s prime minister on Monday to discuss a new ceasefire and a resumption of nuclear negotiations.

Washington has not accepted the plan. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Sunday, November 8, that Iran’s demands were “outrageous and ridiculous and really not realistic”, and added that he would not call a breakthrough imminent. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei defended the plan on Monday as the most reasonable offer on the table, Reuters reported.

A senior United Arab Emirates official, Anwar Gargash, also said a comprehensive US-Iran settlement appeared difficult, according to the same Reuters report. For background on the US enforcement side, see what the US “Iron Gate” task force can and cannot do.

Is the Strait of Hormuz really reopening?

Not on the evidence available. Reuters reported that both countries claimed attacks on ships in or near the strait this month, and that the US struck Iran’s Qeshm island overnight, according to Iranian state media. Iran has attacked tankers in the Gulf and Hormuz, while its Yemeni Houthi allies have hit Saudi Arabia.

Earlier disruption was severe. Reuters, via Oilprice.com, reported that average daily flows through the strait in the week to October 13 fell to 11.62 million barrels from a baseline of 17.15 million. Iraq’s foreign minister, Fuad Hussein, told Al Jazeera that his country’s losses from the war and disrupted exports had reached $60 billion, and that Baghdad was seeking passage for its oil through a lane near Oman.

How high is the oil price compared with before the war?

Still well above where it stood a year ago. Fortune reported Brent at $97.65 at 7:30 a.m. Eastern Time on Monday, roughly $33.50 higher than a year earlier. The National reported that the war began in late February and that Brent briefly topped $126 in late April.

Analysts quoted by Reuters and The Globe and Mail argue a risk premium will persist. One analyst quoted by the Globe and Mail said that without a meaningful diplomatic breakthrough and sustained normal shipping, crude would keep a geopolitical premium, with near-term Brent support seen at $93. Other readings of the same facts are more bearish: Investing.com analysis from November 2 estimated that a signed deal reopening Hormuz would push Brent toward the $90s.

The political backdrop adds weight. Reuters reported that senior Republicans, including Vice President JD Vance, have blamed their party’s midterm losses on the Iran war, which raises domestic pressure on the White House. That theme is covered in Intelligence Report’s analysis of the Iran missile range limit.

What to watch

• Trump and Qatar’s prime minister: The White House meeting on November 9, which also includes Vice President Vance, is the nearest test of whether mediation can produce a text both sides accept.
• US inflation data: US consumer price figures are due on Tuesday, November 10, along with the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook, according to a market preview by Startup Fortune.
• OPEC’s monthly report: Due on Wednesday, November 11, per the same preview, which also lists an OPEC+ ministerial meeting on November 29.
• Hormuz incidents and flows: Further tanker attacks, or tracker data showing a sustained recovery in transit volumes, would move prices more than statements.
• Sanctions enforcement: The US Treasury has recently widened Iran-related sanctions to Indian and Turkish firms, Oilprice.com reported, a sign that pressure continues alongside diplomacy.

Frequently asked questions

Sources

• Oil slides as Trump signals restraint on Iran despite fresh shipping attacks (Reuters via Lufkin Daily News)
• Oil falls as Trump says new Iran attacks 'unlikely' (CNBC)
• Oil prices tumble for the week as investors weigh Iran conflict risk (CNBC)
• Trump to meet Iran war mediator Qatar, no imminent deal seen (Reuters via BOE Report)
• Trump to meet Qatari prime minister about mediation efforts with Iran (Axios)
• Oil slides as Trump signals restraint on Iran (RTE)
• Current price of oil as of Nov. 9, 2026 (Fortune)
• Oil prices set for weekly drop on Trump's election rout (The National)
• Qatar PM to meet Trump: What's the latest on US-Iran negotiations? (Al Jazeera)
• Brent crude drops 16% in a week to $98 as traders bet on a US-Iran deal (Startup Fortune)

Top image: Buonasera / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 3.0)

This article was produced by the Intelligence Report Desk. Sources are linked below.